Arizona @ Atl

Doug Davis:
Davis has been out most of this season so there isn't much to go on as far as his 08 production. Davis is a big time off speed pitcher who's thrown less than 45% fastballs over the last few seasons. Doug will feature a cutter, a slider and a curve. Here are his 07 numbers:

• 6.73 K/9
• 4.44 BB/9
• 0.98 HR/9
• .280 BAA
• 19.4% LD
• 47.0 % GB
• 33.6 % FB

In 2007 Doug really struggled with his BB/9 rate against righties which could mean trouble as Escobar appears likely to make his return to the starting lineup tonight for ATL. Davis made two appearance in early april and was impressive in neither.

jojo-reyes has a decent era this year, but don't let that fool you, the kid has been dreadful. Reyes has a nice K rate, but his walks are a little high and he gets hit pretty hard. Here are his 08 numbers:

• 7.78 K/9
• 3.20 BB/9
• 0.46 HR/9
• .335 BAA
• 24.2% LD
• 56.1 % GB
• 19.7 %

according to scout.com,

Here is what he throws:

• 65.0% FB (average speed 91.7 mph)
• 11.7% slider
• 10.7% curve
• 12.6% change (average speed 83.8 mph)

Jo-Jo has only given up more than 2 fly balls in one of his 4 outings, so he seems to be a good bet to keep the ball in the park tonight.


The AZ bats have seen this young left-hander before and they have absolutely mauled him. the roster is batting .412 in 27 Abs with an OPS over 1.600. Byrnes, Drew, and Young all HRed off of him while Hudson, Snyder, and Young (again) have doubled off of him. Jo-Jo also hasn't fooled the AZ bats as they worked 3 walks to just 2 Ks in their meetings again him. reyes is getting many more ground balls this season, but those numbers are still cause for some concern.

Surprisingly, the ATL bats only have 30 team ABs against Doug Davis and Doug has handled them pretty well. the ATL roster is batting just .267 against the lefty and they have yet to take him yard. ATLs big guns, Chipper, Escobar, and Mcann are a combined one of 11 vs davis with a single, a K, and 2 walks.

AZ is 11-6 vs. lefties while ATL is just 9-10 on the season. the Braves weakness this year has been facing the left handers as they average just 3.7 rpg off of them which is down 2.3 runs from their overall home average.

Neither one of these guys is likely to go deep, so you know we'll see a lot of the pens tonight. Each of these teams has a good pen, or at least their numbers to date reflect as much, and each is rested.

Notes:
DIAMONDBACKS

• Diamondbacks are the second highest scoring team in the league at 5.1 runs per game.
• Diamondbacks are second worst in K's per game with 7.7.
• Diamondbacks have the second stingiest defence in the league at 4.1 runs per game.
• Diamondbacks are second best in the league in giving up hits, allowing 7.9 per game.
• Diamondbacks give up the fewest free passes in the league allowing 2.9 per game.
• Diamondbacks are third in the league in striking out opponents with 7.4 per game.

BRAVES

• Braves are the third highest scoring team in the league at 4.9 runs per game.
• Braves have the second best hits stat in the league at 9.9 per game.
• Braves strike out less than any team in the league with 5.3 per game.
• Braves are the toughest team to score on in the league, allowing just 3.6 runs per game.
• Braves have the best hits allowed in the league, allowing 7.8 per game.

Ump:
Crew has not been announced

Weather:
Tonight the weather will be warm with the chance of some isolated t-storms; wind will not be a factor.


Tonight we have two have the highest scoring teams in the league which also happen to be the two best defensive teams in the league. The atl bats have been red hot while the Az bats have been really struggling over the last week. that being said, AZ has seen and clobbered reyes in the past and he may be the one to get their bats heated up again. Davis has had some success against atl and if he can keep his team close, i believe AZ has the advantage in the pen.

I will take AZ +128
I will also take this one to go over 9.5 +102

Johan vs. Hudson


Johan Santana:

Surprisingly, Johans numbers havent been better to start his stint in the NL than they were over the last 4 years in the AL, but Santana is a guy thats had slow starts before and come back to be a cy young contender. This season, hes not off to a slow start, but hes not dominating at a level that most expected him to.

Johans numbers:

• 8.55 K/9
• 2.25 BB/9
• 1.65 HR/9
• .235 BAA
• .268 BABIP
• 85% LOB
• 19.8% LD
• 43.7 % GB
• 36.5 % FB

What he throws:
59.6% FB
14.6% slider
25.8% change

Santana is throwing more sliders and less change ups than he did over the course of the 07 season. many think he has the best change in baseball; maybe he'll start relying on it a bit more soon.

Johan has gone 6.0, 6.0, and 7.2 innings in his 3 most recent starts. In those contests he allowed 5, 6, and 6 line drives; not impressive. Santana saw the braves earlier this season and had one of his best games against them when he went 7 innings and only allowed 1 ER.

Here are Johans splits:

ERA


BAA


WHIP



Tim Hudson
Tim has enjoyed a great start to his 08 season as his HA/IP ratio is better than its been since 2003 and hes got 6 wins going into his start tonight.

Tims Stats:

• 5.55 K/9
• 2.19 BB/9
• 0.44 HR/9
• .227 BAA
• .261 BABIP
• 70.1 LOB%
• 16.6 % LD
• 59.4 % GB
• 24.1 % FB

What he throws:

• 60.7% FB
• 15.2% slider
• 3.0% cutter
• 5.3% curve
• 9.8% change
• 6.1% splitter

tim is throwing less Fbs and far more change ups this season than he had in his last few seasons. He has a lot of pitches he can go to if one isnt on and this large arsenal helps him keep batters off balance.

Tims last outing looked much worse than it was. The as got 5 earned off of him but thats simply because ground balls were finding holes instead of gloves. tim has yet to be hit hard in any game this month. In his 2nd start of the season he saw the Mets and got a win over NY right-hander john Maine.

Tims splits:

ERA


BAA


WHIP



The braves lineup actually has a decent number of ABs vs Johan seeing as a few of these guys spent time in the AL. as a whole, johan has dominated this group allowing a BA of just .220 and an OPS of .620. The bad news is, Diaz, Chipper, Escobar, and Mcann have crushed johan over the course of their ABs against him. You have to figure that bobby will get Diaz in the lineup tonight.

The NYM lineup has an absurd number of ABs against hudson and they've had a lot of success against him. In 367 Abs this roster is batting .283 off hudson and they've taken 30 walks to just 44Ks. Beltran, Alou, and delgado absolutely smash Tim while even edny and easley hit the right hander pretty hard. Wright and reyes have not had great success against Hudson, in fact, the ATl starter has owned Wright over the course of their 39 encounters. without alou in the lineup tonight, the fact that easley and Marlon Anderson have each hit tim well plays a factor.

Umpire:
Meals has been 6-4 in favor of the over this season, but last season he was more of an under ump. here are his games behind the plate this season:

Date - Road Team - Home Team - line - result

• 04/02 Toronto(A.J. Burnett) NY Yankees(Mike Mussina) 9 U
• 04/06 Pittsburgh(Ian Snell) Florida(Rick VandenHurk) 9 O
• 04/18 Texas(Luis Mendoza) Boston(Daisuke Matsuzaka) 10.5 O
• 04/22 NY Yankees(Chien-Ming Wang) Chi White Sox(Jose Contreras) 9.5 O
• 04/26 Toronto(Shaun Marcum) Kansas City(Luke Hochevar) 8.5 U
• 04/30 Colorado(Ubaldo Jimenez) San Francisco(Jonathan Sanchez) 7.5 U
• 05/05 Philadelphia(Jamie Moyer) Arizona(Max Scherzer) 10 O
• 05/09 NY Yankees(Kei Igawa) Detroit(Kenny Rogers) 10 O
• 05/14 Oakland(Joe Blanton) Cleveland(C.C. Sabathia) 8 U
• 05/18 Kansas City(Zack Greinke) Florida(Burke Badenhop) 8.5 O

Notes:

• Atl is 19-5 at home
• the mets are only 5-10 vs. teams with a winning record
• mets are batting .229 in their past 7 games
• mets are batting .246 vs. right handed starters
• mets bullpen has an era of 5.49 on the road
• atl is scoring 6 runs a game at home
• atl is batting .288 over their last 7 games
• atl is only averaging 3.7 rpg vs lefty starters
• atl BP has an era under .300 at home

Johan has a road era of 2.81 and he is going 6.9 innings per start in those outings. Hudson has a home ERA of 2.94 and the Braves are 4-1 in those games. all 3 of johans last 3 starts vs the Braves have gone under while 2 of hudsons last 3 vs the mets have also gone under.

Tonight the strike out artist, johan santana, will be up against the team that strikes out less than any team in the NL. santana has been giving up a decent number of LDs when he gets hit and that could spell some trouble against a team that doesnt K often and has a roster with some players who can hit the lefty.

Tonight i like the dog and the over.
ATL +118
Over 7.5

Santana vs Burnett:

Ervin Santana
Santana has enjoyed a turn around season in 08 as his HA/k ratio and HA/IP ratio are simply awesome compared to what he did in 07. At 6-1 and with a good offense behind him, i don't see why he is a dog you can find at better than +120.

Ervins Stats:

• 7.42 K/9
• 1.93 BB/9
• 0.59 HR/9
• .219 ave against
• .267 BABIP
• 18.9 LD%
• 34.9 GB%
• 46.3 FB%
• 8.9% HR/FB

What he throws:

• 68.2% FB
• 27.5% Slider
• 3.8% Change.

so you can see that Ervin is essentially a 2 pitch pitcher that will mix in the change every once in a while.

Ervin ERA splits



Ervin BA splits



Ervin LOB% splits



As you would expect, Santana has been much tougher on righties than lefties; his BA allowed to lefties is something he'll have to work on as it sits near .300 presently.

AJ Burnett
Aj some of the most dominant stuff in the game, but he can struggle to locate at times and that gets him in trouble. It is absolutely ridiculous to see Burnetts ERA up ove 4.70, but thats where we find him 2/3rds of the way through May.

Burnett's Stats:

• 7.69 K/9
• 4.24 BB/9
• 0.63 HR/9
• .264 BAA
• .324 BABIP
• 19.1% LD
• 47.4 % GB
• 33.5 % FB
• 6.9 % HR/FB

What he throws:

• 66.0% FB
• 2.8% slider
• 25.4% Curve Ball
• 5.8% Change

Burnett mixes his pitches up more than Ervin does, but he still seems to rely too much on his power Fb and Power curve. He gets enamored with the strike out when he really should be forcing more guys to put the ball in play against him. His stuff is nasty, but he goes out looking to K the side each inning and he gets his pitch count up and he eventually finds himself in trouble. what is interesting is that Burnett Ks lefties at a higher rate than righties, but his splits vs lefties overall are ugly.

Burnett's ERA splits:



Burnett's BAA splits:



Burnett's LOB% splits:




ah, now we find the reason that the Jays are favored tonight, AJ Burnett has dominated this LAA lineup. Overall this roster is hitting just .190 off of Aj and their OPS is under .690. Vlad makes up over half of the teams 63 totals ABS against the tall right hander and he is just 7 of 34 with 9 Ks. Tori hunter has seen Burnett more than anyone other than Vlad and he is just 1 of 8 off the Tor starter. The rest of the bats have just 4 hits in 19 matchups with Burnett.

Ervin has had a decent amount of success against the Tor lineup over his career. In 115 team ABs this lineup is hitting just .243 against santana with only 5HR and 7 walks. Wells, Stairs, and Stewart have hit the youngster hard, but wells is out tonight. The power against ervin has come off the bat of Brad Wilkerson who has 3 HRs in 18Abs in his meetings with the Angels starter.

The angels bats have really struggled over their last games as they've batted just .228 and have an OBP under .295. The halos actually score more on the road than they do at home, but their BA as the vositing side is still pretty bad.

As most of us know, the Tor bats have struggled at home, on the road, on turf, and in just about every circumstance you could imagine. The bright spot for this team has been their pitching and that success extends into the bullpen where the jays rank 2nd in the AL. If this line moves under -130 for the jays, this will be an LT Profit BP system play.

A trend of note here is the fact that 9 of the last 10 in this series have gone under the total.

Umpire:
Jeff Kellogg is the ump tonight and 5 of his 8 games have gone under, though last year he was more of an unders umpire. Here are kellogs games:

• Date - Road Team - Home Team - line - result
• 04/01 NY Mets(Pedro Martinez) Florida(Rick VandenHurk) 9 P
• 04/06 Chi White Sox(Mark Buehrle) Detroit(Justin Verlander) 0 O
• 04/11 San Diego(Jake Peavy) Dodgers(Brad Penny) 7 O
• 04/15 Arizona(Micah Owings) San Francisco(Kevin Correia) 7.5 O
• 04/20 Colorado(Ubaldo Jimenez) Houston(Shawn Chacon) 9.5 O
• 04/24 Philadelphia(Jamie Moyer) Milwaukee(Jeff Suppan) 10 U
• 04/28 Baltimore(Daniel Cabrera) Chi White Sox(Javier Vazquez) 8.5 U
• 05/02 Cincinnati(Edinson Volquez) Atlanta(Tim Hudson) 8.5 U
• 05/06 Texas(Sidney Ponson) Seattle(Miguel Batista) 9 O
• 05/10 Philadelphia(Jamie Moyer) San Francisco(Tim Lincecum) 8 O

Burnett has struggled greatly against lefties and the angels two hottest hitters, Kotchman and Anderson, happen to be lefties. Ervin is getting a spot start tonight, but he i still on full rest. Tonight i will take Ana ff and the game under 8.5.

Ana ff +117
under 8.5

Carmona @ Harang

The first thing that jumps out is the two starters, obviously, and then the total that sits a bit high at 8.5. This is likely related to weather or the ump, so i'll check those things out now.

Tom Hallion is behind the plate tonight and hes been pretty even with 6 of his first 10 games going under. Last season he was more of an over ump with the over going 19-15. Toms first 5 games all went under and that was followed by a streak of 4 overs before his last game, (estes/marquis) went under earlier in the week. So, it aint the ump. I'll take a look at the weather, i have a feeling i know what im going to find...

Wind. Yep, 20mph winds blowing out towards left field today with scattered thunderstorms. Wind = over. Rain delays = increased chance for delays and needing to go to the bullpen a bit earlier. you never want to break a pitchers rhythm and some managers wont bring their starters back after a length delay. It looks like they'll get the game in today, but it could take a while.

Faustos Ks are way down and his walks are way up. Each of those statstics, BB and K, are absolutely pathetic for Carmona this season, but he continues to have success. The righty is walking 6.47 batters per 9 and only striking out .51 batters per walk allowed. Carmona is an extreme ground ball pitcher which will give him an advantage today with the wind blowing out and opposing a lineup that likes to swing for the fences at home. Carmonas batted ball chart looks like this:

• 15.5% LD
• 66.5% GB
• 18.1% FB

Here is what the youngster throws:

• 81.6% FB
• 8% sliders
• 10.3% splitters

everything he throws sinks which makes him tough to hit HRs against; on the season Carmona has given up just 1 HR


6-7 Aaron Harang is putting together another excellent season. He has an era of 3.32 and has allowed just 55 hits in 62.1 innings while recording 51Ks. Harang is a bit of a fly ball pitcher which could spell trouble today if the winds continue to blow at 15+ MPH. Here is Harangs batted ball chart:

• 22.5% LD
• 35.4% GB
• 42.1% FB

With only 35% of the balls batted against him being grounders, he will have to avoid the walks and try to stay out of the big innings if he can't keep the ball down. On the season Harang is allowing just 2.17 walks per 9 which is strong.

Aaron is essentially a 2 pitch pitcher, he likes the FB and the slider. Here is what he throws:

• 68.8% FB
• 25.9% Slider
• 2.3% Curve
• 2.9% change

Clev has been very good this month with a 9-5 record, but their offense has continued to struggle as they've posted just 4 runs a game over their last 7. Worse still, Clev is batting just .206 over their last seven games which is ridiculous.

Cinci, on the other hand, has been raking with 5.7 runs per game in their last 7 and a BA over .300. Unfortunately, they've been giving up as many runs as they've scored over that span.

Each of these bullpens has been decent in the home/road spots they find themselves in today. Cinci's pen has been especially impressive at home with an era of 2.83 and a whip under 1.20.

The cinci starter has some experience vs the tribe and hes been pretty dominant against everyone but Sizemore. overall the clev lineup is only batting .237 against him with an OPS over .646. Carmona, has not had similar success against the Cinci roster. as a team the reds players are batting .292 against Fausto in 24 ABs. The redeeming news for the right-hander is the fact that he's only allowed one extra base hit against this reds group; that hit was a double off the bat of Ken Griffey jr.

The wind blowing out is certainly a factor, but with carmona on the hill for one side, the hr ball should not be in play all that much. Harang has had a lot of success against the tribe when hes seen them and hes really limited their power against him. I have two selections for this game:

Clev -106
under 8.5 -115

A. Galarraga @ Scherzer

The big right hander for the Tigers has been very impressive this season only allowing 20 hits in 29.1 innings while recording 21 Ks. On the season Galarraga has is recording 6.44 k/9 while allowing 2.76 BB/9. Armondos LD% against is very good and he's proven to be a ground ball pitcher which should be beneficial vs a team like the Dbacks. Here is what the righty throws:
56.3% FB
31.5% sliders
11.9% change ups

I think most of the baseball community is aware of what Max Scherzer brings tot he table. Max is a hard throwing right hander that has struck out over 9.2 batters per 9 innings at every level. The righty is currently striking out 6 batters for every walk he allows and he's allowed just 13 hits in his 14.1 innings of work at the major league level this season. What is concerning is his LD% allowed. Max keeps bringing the fastball and these hitters are catching on to it. as of now, 35.3% of the batted balls against him have been LDs and the rest have been evenly split b/w GB and FB. The youngster has yet to allow a HR, but thats not going to continue if he doesn't start getting some softer contact off the bats of the opposition. Here is what Max has thrown since hes been called up:
75.3% FB
15.1% slider
9.6% change up.

you see a lot of younger pitchers who don't trust their change up at this level. This kid will need to trust his off speed stuff more if he wants to keep his spot through the remainder of the season.


The Tigers have been awful in May going just 3-11, they've also struggled on road games with a total of 9-9.5 where they are 2-13. In their last 7 games Detroit is just 1-6 and they're only scoring 2.6 runs a game over that span. In fact, over their last 7 games the Tigers are only batting .245 with an embarrassing OBP of .279.

Another concern for the Tigers is how poorly their pen has performed on the road. the tigers pen has a whip of 1.638 on the road and an era over 5.10. The relievers have done a good job of not giving up the long ball, but they've walked 37 in 61.2 road innings of work.

Arizona has been pretty bad offensively over their last 7 games as well. AZ has scored just 4.4 runs per game (down from their season average of 5.5) and they're hitting just .243. The difference is, they've managed to win 4 of 7 as they've struggled at the plate.

The AZ pen has been good overall, but they've struggled some of late. The pen was ranked the best in the league just about 9 days ago, now they've fallen just outside the top 10 at #11. the AZ pen has a home era of 3.62 which is very strong and this group will likely be needed with the young kid getting the start this evening.

Statistically, AZ is better in every category than Detroit other than defensive Ks. Detroit doesn't strike out a lot which could pose a problem for strike out artists Max Scherzer.

Over the last week, Magglio, Joyce, Cabrera, and Pudge have all been hitting well despite the fact that the Tigers continue to struggle to get runs this month. On the other side, hudson, drew, young, and ojeda have been the hot bats for the Dback.

Todays umpire is Joe West who has gone over the total in 7 of his 8 games behind the plate. West has only called 2 games in which the total has ended under 10 runs and those two games totaled 8 and 9 runs respectively.

I was leaning towards the under until i looked at who was behind the plate and now i'll lay off the total seeing as i now want to play the over. West was fair with his totals last season, and things are likely to even out, but with 8 runs being the lowest total in any of his 8 contests, i wont play the under here.

Today im going to back the Tigers at +123 FF. I dont trust the tigers pen against the dbacks pen later in the game, but i think they can get to the rookie today while Galarraga continues to pitch well.

My play for the tigers game:
Det first five +123

Lincecum: --- Sampson
k/9 9.48 --- 4.09
BB/9 3.22 --- 2.45
HR/9 0.54 --- 0.55
BABIP .321 --- .355

LD% 19.5 --- 23.1
GB% 45.1 --- 52.9
FB% 35.3 --- 24.0

What he throws:
FB 67% --- 66.6%
Slider 1.9% --- 7.5%
CT 0.0% --- 9.0%
CB 10.8% --- 13.4%
CH 20.3 --- 3.5%
Strikes 522 --- 333
Balls 287 --- 190

Splits (Sampson)
ERA: Sampson gets killed vs. righties; does well vs. lefties
K/9: poor vs. each
BB/9: walks lefties at an awful rate. Doesn’t walk righties
K/BB: great vs. right, poor vs. lefties
HR/9: good vs. righties, average vs. lefties.
Ave: Righties around .350 off of him, lefties closer to .285

Splits (Lincecum)
ERA: Great vs. each, better vs. lefties.
K/9: good vs. each
BB/9: average vs. each
K/BB: good vs. each
HR/9: very good vs. lefties; decent vs. righties.
Ave: decent vs. each

Batter vs. Pitcher
(Houston vs. Lincecum)
Tim has dominated this Houston lineup. In 37 Abs the Stros have 0 HRs and 0 doubles off of Tim. Their team BA is just .162 and their team OPS is only .416. The right hander has 10Ks and 2 walks against this roster.

(SF vs. Sampson)
SF has no HRs off Sampson in 42 team AB’s. Winn, Molina, Lewis and Rowand have each his Chris pretty well in their career. This roster only has a .707 OPS against Sampson.


plays:
sf
under

Sheets: --- Billingsly
k/9 7.38 --- 11.17
BB/9 2.33 --- 5.35
HR/9 0.78 --- 0.47
BABIP .238 --- .371 (bad luck so far this season, may be undervalued)

LD% 13.5 --- 16.5
GB% 42.9 --- 49.5
FB% 43.6 --- 37.2

What he throws:
FB 60.3% --- 55.3%
CT 0.0% --- 21.6%
CB 37% --- 19.3%
CH 2.7% --- 3.6%
Strikes 463 --- 424
Balls 235 --- 290

Splits (Billingsly)
ERA: About the same vs. righties and Lefties
K/9: Great vs. each, but tougher on righties
BB/9: Walks many more left-handed hitters
K/BB: His K/BB ratio is awful against lefties
HR/9: very good against left and right handers
Ave: Good against righties; poor vs lefties

Splits (Sheets)
ERA: Great vs. righties, good vs lefties
K/9: Above average vs. each
BB/9: Better vs. lefties than righties. Above average vs each
K/BB: Better ratio against lefties
HR/9: Above average vs. each
Ave: good vs each, better vs righties

Batter vs. Pitcher
(LAD vs. Sheets)
A Jones is 13/34 off Sheets with 2HR, 2 doubles, 0 walks, and 7Ks.
Jeff Kent is 7/29 vs sheets with 2HR, a double, 1 walk, and 5Ks.
Juan Pierre is 8/27 vs sheets with a double, 1 walk, and 3 Ks.
Mark Sweeney is 2/11 vs sheets with a double, a HR, 0 walks, and 4Ks.
Russell Martin is 1/6 vs. sheets with a HR, a walk, and 0 Ks.
Andre Ethier is 0/4 vs. Sheets with 1K

In 150 AB’s vs. Ben this roster has 6HR, 8 doubles, 29Ks, and 5 walks.

(Mil vs. Billingsly)
Mike Cameron is 1/17 vs. Billingsly with a walk and 8Ks.
Bill hall is 1/2 vs. Billingsly.
Ricky Weeks is 1/2 vs. Billingsly.
JJ Hardy is 1/2 vs. Billingsly with 1K.
Craig Counsell is 1/1 vs. Billingsly with a walk.
Prince Fielder is 0/1 vs. Billingsly with a K.
Tony Gwynn is 1/1 vs. Billingsly with a double.

In 27 team Abs this roster has zero HRs off Chad, 1 double, 2 walks, and 11Ks.

D Cab:
5.74 K/9
4.05 BB/9
HR/9 1.01
average against .210
BABIP .226
LOB% 78.6
LD% 11.8
GB% 56.5
FB% 31.7
IFFB% 11.8
HR/FB 11.8%
Fastball 85.9%
Slider 11.2%
Change 2.8%

Game logs - Strikes/Balls
4/2 Rays: 51/43
4/7 Mariners: 58/44
4/12 @Rays: 63/44
4/18 Yankees: 64/44
4/23 @Mariners: 65/30
4/28 @WSox: 55/47
5/3 @Angels: 64/38
5/8 @Royals: 76/40


D Cabs splits vs lefty/righty:

Attached Images

 

Lester:

5.12 K/9
4.76 BB/9
1.06 HR/9
.258 BA against
.277 BABIP
75.8% LOB%
19% LD
48.5% GB
32.5% FB
13.0% IFFB
9.6% HR/9
62.3% Fastball
19.6% Cutter
13.3% Curve
4.3% Change
337 balls
523 strikes
2 infield hits allowed

Lester has shown to give about about the same average to right handers and lefties.

Attached Images

Brian Roberts:

GB 45
FB 48
LD 27
BB% 11.9
K% 18.9
pitches seen 667
0-swing% 15.49%
Z-swing% 61.47%
Swing% 40.03%
O-contact% 71.74%
Z-Contact% 91.87%
Contat% 88.24%
Zone% 53.38%

San Francisco Hosts the Astros:



Line:

• Houston +115
• San Francisco -125
• Over/Under 8

Records:

• San Francisco 16-23 – Over/Under 20-19
• Houston 22-17 – Over/Under 17-22

Trends:

• Houston is 13-8 after a win
• Houston is 6-2 after 3 consecutive wins
• Houston is 8-6 when playing against a team with a losing record
• Houston is 6-2 when the total is 8 to 8.5
• Houston is 3-1 as a road dog of +100 to +125
• Houston is 11-11 on the road
• Houston is 9-1 in their last 10
• Houston is 17-13 against right-handed starters

• SF is 9-13 after a loss
• SF is 10-15 against teams with a winning record
• SF is 5-8 when the total is 8 to 8.5
• SF is 4-4 at home with a ML of -100 to -125
• SF is 10-10 at home
• SF has won 3 of their last 7
• SF is 11-17 against right-handed starters

Weather:
Tonight the weather will be around 69 degrees with a light 10mph wind blowing out from third base towards far right field.

Team vs. Team:
Recent Matchups:

• 7-3 Houston
• 9-1 SF
• 4-2 SF
• 4-0 SF
• 2-1 SF
• 2-1 Houston
• 6-2 Houston
• 10-2 SF
• 14-3 SF
• 10-1 SF

Batter vs. Pitcher:
Winn and Rowand are each one for one against Backe, but this roster really hasn’t seen him much or had much success against him when they have. No one on the Giants has a HR off Brandon in 38 team Abs, but they’ve put the ball in play against him in 34 of those plate appearances. Dave Roberts has the most experience, and success, against the Astros starter but he is out tonight.

The Houston regulars really haven’t seen much of Matt Cain. Overall this roster is batting .271 against him with Kaz Matsui leading the way with six hits in 18 ABs. Lance is one for three with a HR off Cain and, predictably, this roster has only worked two walks against the wild right-hander.

Houston Pitching:
Brandon Backe has really struggled keeping runners off the bases this season; he has a WHIP over .1734 and is allowing 5.91 walks per nine. In road starts Brandon becomes slightly worse than pathetic; his road whip is over 2.00 and he has allowed 13 free passes in 19 innings. The Stros are 3-5 in Backe’s starts and the over has hit in three of those eight starts.

Backe is 1-0 in his last three appearances vs. San Fran. In those outings Brandon performed well in two of them, including a CG shutout of the Giants in May of 2005.

The Houston right-hander is giving up far too many LDs this season at 22.4% while allowing 1.48 HR/9. Backe is on a career pace with 7.17 K/9 but the walks are coming at an alarming rate of 5.91 per nine innings.

Brandon is throwing his fastball much less this year and his slider much more. Fastballs have only accounted for 53.4% of Backes pitches while sliders have been his choice 25% of the time. BB also throws a curve and a chance fairly regularly. Backe hasn’t thrown 100 pitches in any of his last 5 starts, but that shouldn’t be too big a problem as Roy Oswalt was able to save the pen last night.

Houston Bats:
The Stros are averaging 4.9 runs per contest which is impressive after the slow start they got off to. As a team Houston is batting .260, but that averages dips to .240 in road contests. Previously mentioned, Houston has been hot of late, the stats over their last seven games reads as follows: .300 BA, 5.7 runs per, and an OBP of .380. In 2008 the Astros have been good about not leaving guys on base and not hitting into double plays.

Lance Berkman has been the hottest hitter in the land over the last seven days batting a ridiculous .692 with three Home Runs. The switch hitter is seeing the ball well from both sides of the plate and he figures to be a tough out any time the Giants choose to pitch to him. Really, Pence, Lee, Tejada, and even Ausmus have been hot for the Stros, there is no reason to think they won’t find some success tonight.

San Francisco Pitching:
Big Matt Cain gets the nod tonight for the Giants. Cain has struggled a bit this season, but his numbers are well above average at home. Cain has a home ERA of 3.31, which is down over a run from his overall ERA, and he’s striking about as many batters as he is allowing hits to. Matt has really had problems with walks, which is nothing new for him but it’s certainly something the Giants are hoping he gets under control soon. San Fran is 3-5 in Cain’s starts this season and the total has split down the middle at 4-4.

Matt Cain has one previous start against Houston and that ended up being a loss. In that game Matt went five innings, allowed five hits, gave up three earned, and struck out eight.

In 2007 Matt Cain only allowed 16.1% LDs but this year that percentage is up to 23.1% which is obviously not what you want to see if you’re a Giants fan. Matt is giving up a decent amount of fly balls, but a large portion of those have been infield fly outs. The righty is walking 4.89 per nine innings while retiring 8.22 every nine via the strike out.

Cain is going to his DB four percent more often this year than he did last. The FB is his best pitch, but he’s been getting knocked around a bit as the batters are sitting on the pitch a bit more than they could last season. The Giants starter goes to his slider 10.2% of the time, his curve 7.9% and his change up 13.5%.

In his last outing Matt was really tuned up allowing 7 line drives is 6.1 IP. Matt showed good command throwing 74 strikes out of his 113 pitches, but the Pirates hit him hard and got to him for five earned. The right-hander has thrown 98 or more pitches in three of his last four appearances which is not really concerning; Cain can certainly handle the load.


San Francisco Bats:
The Giants have been dreadful at the plate over the course of the season, but they’ve performed pretty well in their last seven outings. On the season the Giants are only batting .257 and scoring 3.5 runs per, but they’ve upped that to .277 and 4.3 in their last weeks worth of games. San Fran doesn’t draw a lot of walks and they don’t hit many home runs; they’ll need to improve in each category if they want to finish this season near .500.

The hot bats in the Giants dugout belong to Bowker, Vizquel, Winn, Burriss, Rowand, and Castillo; this lineup has been playing better over the last week than they had all season. Five different Giants have homered in the last week and the outs for opposing pitchers are getting tougher to come by.

Injuries:
Houston

• RHP Felipe Paulino Right arm 15-day DL (3/19)
• LHP Wandy Rodriguez Left groin 15-day DL (4/20)

San Francisco

• RHP Kevin Correia Left oblique 15-day DL (4/27)
• 2B Ray Durham Right hamstring Day-to-Day
• 2B Kevin Frandsen Left heel 15-day DL (3/21); out for season
• LHP Noah Lowry Placed on the DL, retroactive to March 21, following left forearm surgery. He is due to resume throwing off a mound this week. He could return three or four weeks into the season. (4/22)
• OF Dave Roberts Had surgery on his left knee in order to reapair some damage. He is expected to miss up to 4 months. (4/22)
• LHP Erick Threets Chest 15-day DL (4/19)

Ball Park:
AT&T Park is known as a pitchers park and favors the fly ball guys. The outfield is big which means a decent number of hits get down, but not many balls leave the yard.

Umpire:
Tonight’s umpire is Gerry Davis. Davis is 4-4 on totals this season, but he was 23-12 in favor of the over in 2007. Three of his unders this season have featured a legitimate Cy young award candidate; Johan vs. Smoltz, Lincecum vs. Pineiro, and Carmona vs. Pettitte. The 4th under was Wakefield vs. Burnett and most of us know that the Blue Jays are an under team right now no matter who is behind the plate.

Bull Pen:
Houston – The Astros pen has been about average on the season maintaining a 3.91 ERA and a WHIP just over 1.35. This unit has given up 19 long balls, but it’s also shown the ability to get the strike out when needed which has been a plus. Overall this bullpen has performed worse on the road than they have at home, but they’ve converted a higher percentage of their save chances as visitors than they have as the home team.

San Francisco – The Giants pen isn’t impressive in any way. They aren’t the worst pen in the league, but they aren’t a group that’s going to scare the Houston bats if they’re called upon. SF has an era over 4.25 in their home games and a 5-4 record in those contests.

Line moves:
This line has moved in each direction and currently sits about 3 cents in favor of the Giants in comparison with where it started.

My thoughts:
Houston is one of the hottest teams in baseball right now and they show no signs of slowing down. The Astros bats are raking and their bullpen got some rest after Oswalt was able to go eight last night. Gerry Davis is behind the plate and though he’s been even this season on totals, last year his games went over far more often than they did under. Cain and Backe are both wild, but these two teams rank last in the NL in walks. In addition to the fact that the Astros’ bats have been hot, the Giants’ bats have been as warm as ever over the last week. Brandon Backe has discovered the ability to get the strike out this year and the Giants seem like as good a team as any to carry on that successa against; The Giants are second worst in the NL in K’s per nine at 7.3.

Pick:
Tonight I have two selections on this game.
Houston +113
Over 8

LeBron has been embarrassed so far against the Celtics, but don't expect that to continue when the Cavaliers get back home. Boston won't get their first road playoff win tonight.

The Boston Cletis have dominated LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers with their defense in the first two games of this series, as James has twice as many turnovers as field goals made. Tonight Cleveland comes back home where it’s do or die time.

Overall this season the Cavs actually allowed more points per game than they’ve scored, but they did finish 14 games over .500 at home where they managed just under 98 points per contest. In order for the home team to get the win tonight, they will have to get things done on the glass. In 2008 the Cavaliers were the best rebounding team in the league, but they have been out rebounded in each of the first two games of this series. Coach Brown’s team isn’t likely to hit for a high percentage from the floor, so if they’re not getting second chance opportunities, this could be a four game series.

Boston didn’t play a whole lot more poorly on the road this season than they did at home. Boston is 31-13 outside of Massachusetts and they outscore their opposition by over seven points a game in those contests. On the road, Boston gets things done from the 3-point line where they hit eight a game and over 39% of their attemps.

Concerning for Cavs backers has to be the fact that Cleveland has only covered 17 of 44 home games while Boston has been a covering machine on the road this season. That is, until the playoffs where Boston got swept on the road against the eighth seeded Atlanta Hawks.

Boston has shown a dominance at home in these playoffs that they have yet to show on the road. James has been embarrassed thus far and that doesn’t seem likely to continue. I think we all remember what happened in the 2007 playoffs when people were calling out Lebron in the series against Detroit. The Cavaliers have their backs against the wall and have to get a win in order to keep championship dreams alive. Tonight King James finally gets off and the Cavs make this a 2-1 series.

Free Play: Cleveland -1½ (-110)