History tells us that the Marlins hit Milwaukee's Jeff Suppan well and they’ve shown the ability to put the ball in play which is key for them.

Scott Olson, on the mound for Florida tonight, seems to be back in top form and the Marlins will need him to pitch well if they hope to stay in the battle in the NL East. If Olson can get a lead to his pen it figures to be more secure than that of tonight’s opposition. I will simply hope that Olsen, or the 33-foot left field wall, can contain Brewers slugging lineup led by Ryan Braun and take my chances with the other matchups.

Free Pick: Marlins -102

Lines:
Florida -102
Milwaukee -106
Over/under 10

Records:
Florida 17-14 – 16-13 Over/Under
Milwaukee 16-15 – 13-17 Over/Under

Trends:
The Brewers are 9-9 in road games
The Brewers are 1-3 in May
The Brewers are 3-1 following a day off
The Brewers are 6-9 at night
The Brewers are 6-2 vs. lefties
The Brewers are 7-7 after a loss
The Brewers are 8-7 against teams with a winning record
The Brewers have gone under in 4 of their last 6
The Brewers are 6-3 over their last 9 against Florida
The Brewers have gone under in 5 of their last 5 against Florida

The Marlins are 3-1 as a ml of -100 to -125
The Marlins are 2-2 in May
The Marlins are 9-9 at home
The Marlins are 3-1 after a day off
The Marlins are 14-10 at night
The Marlins are 13-9 vs. right-handed starters
The Marlins are 3-2 vs. teams with a winning record
The Marlins are 7-2 in their last 9 home games vs. The Brewers

Weather: Tonight the weather will be clear and warm with a light breeze blowing out to left.

Team vs. Team (Recent Meetings):
3-2 Fla under
4-3 Mil under
3-0 Fla under
3-0 Mil under
5-2 Fla under
8-5 Mil over
4-3 Mil under
5-2 Mil under
3-2 Mil under
5-2 Fla under

In 2007 the Brewers hit nine points over the league average against the Marlins at .289. Mil also had a team OBP and OPS over the league average against The Fish a season ago. What stands out is the 2.45 ERA Milwaukee had against the Marlins last year. Over 66IP the Brewers allowed just 56 hits and 18 ER all while managing over a strike out per inning.

Florida Pitching: Olsen seems to have returned to form after a disastrous ’07. Scott has an overall ERA of 2.70 with a sparkling WHIP of 1.125 over 40 IP this season. Olsen gives his team 6.7 innings per outing and has managed to cut down on his walks thus far in ’08. The Marlins are 5-1 in Olsen’s starts while the under is 2-4. Scott has been even better over his last three outings where he has an ERA of 2.33 and has only been touched up for 14 hits in 19.3 IP.

The young lefty has faced the Brewers three times; here are his numbers in those games:

• 7.1 IP, 4H, 0ER, 5BB, 0K, ND
• 5.2 IP, 8H, 5ER, 3BB, 2K, L
• 7 IP, 1H, 0ER, 2BB, 7K, W

Olsen’s ERA seems legit when you look at how the batted balls against him are hit. So far in ’08 only 11% of batted balls have been LDs, while 52.8% have been fly balls. Last season Olsen gave up over 23% line drives and that was his undoing. Scott’s K/9 rate is way down which may cause some concern, but his decreased number of pitches per inning has allowed him to go deeper into games. Olsen has kept batters off balance a bit better by going to his slider less than he did in ’07 and relying a bit more on his change. Olsen is throwing his fastball more than ever at 71.4% and you really can’t argue with the results.

Ryan Braun has absolutely smashed Scott Olsen in his career, but he is the only Brewer with an OPS over .700 against him. Braun is three for four with two walks, a double, and a bomb off the lefty. But, as noted, no one else has had any sort of success against Scott at all.

Florida Bats: The Marlins bats have been decent on the season, but they’ve struggled some at home. Florida is only batting .242 at Dolphin stadium with an OBP in danger of dropping below .300. The Fish hit right-handed starters fairly well at about .267 and they’ve hit about the same (.266) in their night games. Florida is doing a lot of damage with the HR recording 42 HR’s to date and they’ve displayed most of that power vs. right handers. The boys in teal don’t walk or strike out a lot which is a concern, but they’ve done a good job avoiding the double play and not leaving runners on at home.

Milwaukee Pitching: Suppan enters tonight’s matchup with an ERA of 5.19 as he gives his tea 5.8 innings a start. The Brewers are 4-2 in Jeff’s six starts while the under is 3-3. Suppan has been much worse on the road than he has at home; Jeff has a road ERA of 7.48 and a WHIP of 1.693. The right-hander has been rocked for 29 hits in 20.7 road innings and he has only recorded 8 Ks in those frames. Still, Jeff’s Brewers have managed a 3-1 road record in his starts.

Suppan is 3-1 in his last five starts vs. the Marlins and he’s gone seven plus in three of those outings. Here are his numbers in his five most recent starts against The Fish:

• 7 IP, 6H, 4ER, 3BB, 2K, W
• 6 IP, 8H, 4ER, 1BB, 4K, L
• 7 IP, 6H, 1ER, 4BB, 5K, ND
• 8.1 IP, 5H, 2ER, 3BB, 4K W
• 5 IP, 3H, 0ER, 2BB, 4K, W

As a staff the Brewers allow the third most runs in the league at 9.5 per game and they are the second worst in walks allowed at 4.3 a contest.

The 6-2 right-hander is not being hit quite as hard this year as he has over the course of his career, but he’s still giving up 19.2% LDs, including a season high six in his last appearance. On the hill Suppan has changed his approach dramatically from last season now relying far more on sliders than ever and far less on his FB and curve.

As a team the Marlins roster has an OPS of .810 and a BA of .278 vs. the Brewers hurler. Luis Gonzalez, Alfredo Amezaga, Dan Uggla, and Hanley Ramirez have each taken the righty deep while Scott Olsen has even gotten into the act against Suppan. The regulars have earned more walks than Suppan has earned K’s in previous matchups which should bode well for the young Fish.

Milwaukee Bats: The Brewers bats are really struggling this season only batting .246 with an OBP of .315; they are even worse on the road. Against left-handed starters Mil comes alive a bit with a .270 BA and a decent .330 team OBP. Milwaukee has really struggled to hit the ball in night games this season, but they still find a way to score 4.6 runs per contest in their evening tilts.

Injuries
Florida: Alejandro De Aza OF 15-Day Disabled List
Harvey Garcia P 60-Day Disabled List
Lee Gardner P 15-Day Disabled List
Josh Johnson P 60-Day Disabled List
Sergio Mitre P 60-Day Disabled List
Henry Owens P 60-Day Disabled List
Anibal Sanchez P 15-Day Disabled List
Josh Willingham OF 15-Day Disabled List

Milwaukee: Chris Capuano P 15-Day Disabled List
Randy Choate P 15-Day Disabled List
Yovani Gallardo P 15-Day Disabled List

Ball Park: Dolphin Stadium favors line drive hitters and fast outfielders. The grass is extremely quick and the park is deep. Right field is large and the 33-foot high wall in left knocks down a lot of would be HR’s from right handed batters.

Umpire: Crew not let announced.

Bullpens
Milwaukee: The Brewers bullpen has been putting far too many men on base this season as they continue to struggle with the walks. In 105.3 IP the pen has allowed 64 free passes and has accumulated a WHIP of 1.604. These numbers improve a bit on the road, but they’re still not where Ned Yost would like to see them. Overall, The Brewers pen ranks 25th in the majors.

Florida: The Marlins bullpen has an outstanding ERA at 3.13 and they’ve only allowed six home runs over 112 IP. Florida has struggled closing out games and with walks, but they have a winning record so far in ’08. Concerning for the Marlins is their 3.93 ERA at home and the fact that they’re giving up a hit per inning on their own turf. Overall, Florida’s pen ranks 7th in the majors.

Line moves: The Marlins opened at -121 and have since dropped to -102. The total opened at 9 and has moved to 10 at most places.