Kyle Kendrick has been a two pitch pitcher thus far in 2008, that is likely to spell trouble for him against the second highest scoring offense in the NL.

My thoughts:
Kendrick’s lack of a third pitch has really hurt him this season, and tonight he will be facing the second highest scoring offense in the NL. To make matters worse for the Philly starter, tonight he will be facing what essentially will be an AL lineup given the fact that Micah Owings is the best hitting pitcher in the game today. Kyle has really struggled away from home and this does not appear to be a good spot to work on his change or gain any confidence. The Diamondbacks really want to win this series after losing one to the Mets over the weekend and Micah should be much healthier now than he was in his last outing; I like the Diamondbacks at this price.

Free Pick: Arizona -132

Line:
Arizona -132
Philadelphia +122
Over/Under 10

Records:
Philadelphia: 19-15 – Over/Under 17-16-1
Arizona: 22-11 – Over/Under 18-12-3

Trends:

• 
  Philly is 4-2 in May
  Philly is 13-9 in night games
  Philly is 12-10 vs. right-handed starters
  Philly is 10-4 after a loss
  Philly is 7-6 vs. teams with a winning record
  Philly is 9-7 on the road
  Philly is 5-2 on the road when the total is 10-10.5
  Philly is 11-4 SU in their last 16 games
  Philly games have gone over in 6 of their last 9 on the road
  Philly is 1-4 in their last 5 in AZ
  Philly is 10-5 SU in its last 15 when playing in AZ
• Arizona is 12-6 in night games
  Arizona is 14-8 against right-handed starters
  Arizona is 13-8 after a win
  Arizona is 4-1 as a home favorite of -125 to -150
  Arizona is 13-6 at home
  Arizona is 2-3 in May

Weather:
The weather should be beautiful. 88 degrees, 10mph wind blowing out to left and clear skies.

Team vs. Team:
Recent Meetings:

• 
  6-4 Arizona (Push)
  11-4 Philly (Over)
  4-3 Arizona (Under)
  11-5 Arizona (Over)
  5-4 Arizona (under)
  9-3 Philly (Over)
  3-2 Arizona (Under)
  4-3 Arizona (Under)
  5-2 Philly (Under)
  6-4 Philly (Over)

The Phills really struggled with AZ pitching in 2007 only hitting .235 in 200 team at bats. Philly also struggled pitching against the Diamondback bats, allowing AZ to hit .284 against them.

Philadelphia Pitching:
Kyle Kendrick has an ERA of 1.547 and is giving his team 5.4 innings per start. Those numbers aren’t pathetic, but his road numbers are. As a visitor Kyle has an ERA a bit over six and a WHIP close to 2.00. In those starts he is only giving his team 4.8 innings a start and he has recorded just five Ks in 19.3 innings. Kendrick’s team is 3-1 in his road starts and the total has gone over in each of those contests. The right-hander has been better with his control over his three most recent appearances; Kyle has allowed just two walks over his last 18 innings and has kept his WHIP under 1.40.

The 23 year old kid is getting hit hard this season giving up 25.9% line drives which has resulted in a .318 BABIP. In each of his first two seasons in the bigs Kyle has proved to be a ground ball pitcher; this year he has recorded 50.9% ground balls on balls put in play against him. Kendrick has become a FB/Slider pitcher and has only thrown his change up 3.7% of the time this year. Not trusting the change up has hurt him so far this season, we’ll see if he can get some faith in a 3rd pitch before he has to be sent down. Few starters have good enough stuff to get by with two pitches; Kendrick is certainly not one of them.

Philadelphia Bats:
Philly is having a decent overall season at the plate despite suffers some big injuries early in ’08. Overall the Phils are averaging 4.9 runs a game while batting .256. In road games each of those numbers goes up a bit, but they’ve struggled as a team over their last seven batting just .242. The Phillies have done the job with the long ball this season knocking out 50 HR’s with 22 of those coming on the road in 568 Abs. The big problem for this squad has been the number of people they’re leaving on base; this is an area that must improve if they want to win the East again.

Arizona Pitching:
Arizona starter Micah Owings got roughed up in his last start on a sprained ankle; he allowed 11 hits over 5.7 innings of work and only recorded two Ks. Prior to his most recent outing, Owings had seemed to be emerging as one of the top young starters in the NL, but we’ll see how he bounces back this evening. Overall the right-hander has an ERA of 4.66 with an above average WHIP of 1.227. Micah is giving his team 6.1 innings and outing and his team is 4-2 in his starts with the under cashing in three of those five games. 

Owings faced Philly twice in ’07 and he got the win in each outing. His lines looked as follows:

• 
  5IP, 7H, 1ER, 2BB, 3K - Win
  7IP, 5H, 2ER, 2BB, 2K – Win

Even after his most recent debacle, Micah has still only given up 32 hits in 36 innings and his K/9 is still above 7.30. The young hurler is allowing 18.9% LDs which is not bad considering he gave up a season high six line drives against the Mets on his bum ankle. The righty has been more of a fly ball pitcher than a ground ball guy, but the difference in percentage is not significant. The 6-5 220 pounder has relied a bit more on the FB/Change combination this season and less on the slider; 71.2% of his 584 pitches have been fastballs.

Owings has had overall success against the Phils in his limited experience against them, but Chase Utley has murdered him in his six plate appearances. Feliz, Ruiz, and Howard have decent numbers against Owings in a very limited number of Abs, and Greg Dobbs enters the game one of four with a HR off Micah.

Arizona Bats:
Arizona is averaging a ridiculous 6.3 runs per game at home while maintaining a .300 BA in their park. Over their past seven games the Dbacks have hit .290 as a team but their scoring has been down .6 runs over their season average at just 5.1 runs a game. The Zona bats come alive at night recording a .280 BA and 5.9 RPG.

The young AZ roster has really struggled with strike outs, as many young teams do, and that’s something they’ll have to cut on as the year progresses. This team has only hit into 19 double plays and currently has an OBP of .344.

Injuries:
Philly:

• 
  RHP Scott Mathieson Right elbow 15-day DL (3/22)
  SS Jimmy Rollins Left ankle 15-day DL (4/20)
  RHP Francisco Rosario Right shoulder 15-day DL (3/22)
  OF Chris Snelling Left knee 15-day DL (4/17)
  LHP Mike Zagurski Left elbow 15-day DL (3/22); out for season

Arizona:

• 
  LHP Doug Davis Thyroid 15-day DL (4/9)
  3B Chad Tracy Right knee 15-day DL (3/21)
  2B Orlando Hudson He was scratched from Tuesday's game. An MRI is scheduled to see the status of his strained hamstring. (5/7)

Ball Park:
This stadium is always hitter’s park, but even more so when the roof is open. Chase field has the second highest elevation of any MLB stadium at 1,100 feet above sea level. The infield here is fast which means more grounders are likely to get though and the hitters call the back drop at Chase field one of the best for hitting in the league.

Umpire:
Tonight’s umpire is Paul Emmel. Paul has called two overs and four unders on the season. Last season Emmel proved to be more of an overs ump going 17-12 O/U. All three of Paul Emmel’s NL games have gone under the total this year; one of those games was Kyle Kendrick vs. Roy Oswalt. That game saw 10 hits, four walks, and just three runs.

BullPen:
Philadelphia:
The Phils Pen has been outstanding this season recording an overall ERA of 2.68 and a WHIP of 1.308. These numbers improve to 2.15 and 1.132 on the road in just over 50 innings as the visitors. Amazingly, the Philly pen has yet to allow their first road HR and has only allowed 33 hits in those contests. 

Arizona:
The Diamondbacks pen has been one of the best in baseball all season long. AZ’s pen has compiled a WHIP of 1.130 with an ERA just below 2.70. At home these numbers go up, but they’ve done a good job of keeping the ball in the yard having only allowed two long balls in 62 home innings of work. 

Line moves:
This line has moved five cents towards AZ.