Arizona @ Atl

Doug Davis:
Davis has been out most of this season so there isn't much to go on as far as his 08 production. Davis is a big time off speed pitcher who's thrown less than 45% fastballs over the last few seasons. Doug will feature a cutter, a slider and a curve. Here are his 07 numbers:

• 6.73 K/9
• 4.44 BB/9
• 0.98 HR/9
• .280 BAA
• 19.4% LD
• 47.0 % GB
• 33.6 % FB

In 2007 Doug really struggled with his BB/9 rate against righties which could mean trouble as Escobar appears likely to make his return to the starting lineup tonight for ATL. Davis made two appearance in early april and was impressive in neither.

jojo-reyes has a decent era this year, but don't let that fool you, the kid has been dreadful. Reyes has a nice K rate, but his walks are a little high and he gets hit pretty hard. Here are his 08 numbers:

• 7.78 K/9
• 3.20 BB/9
• 0.46 HR/9
• .335 BAA
• 24.2% LD
• 56.1 % GB
• 19.7 %

according to scout.com,

Here is what he throws:

• 65.0% FB (average speed 91.7 mph)
• 11.7% slider
• 10.7% curve
• 12.6% change (average speed 83.8 mph)

Jo-Jo has only given up more than 2 fly balls in one of his 4 outings, so he seems to be a good bet to keep the ball in the park tonight.


The AZ bats have seen this young left-hander before and they have absolutely mauled him. the roster is batting .412 in 27 Abs with an OPS over 1.600. Byrnes, Drew, and Young all HRed off of him while Hudson, Snyder, and Young (again) have doubled off of him. Jo-Jo also hasn't fooled the AZ bats as they worked 3 walks to just 2 Ks in their meetings again him. reyes is getting many more ground balls this season, but those numbers are still cause for some concern.

Surprisingly, the ATL bats only have 30 team ABs against Doug Davis and Doug has handled them pretty well. the ATL roster is batting just .267 against the lefty and they have yet to take him yard. ATLs big guns, Chipper, Escobar, and Mcann are a combined one of 11 vs davis with a single, a K, and 2 walks.

AZ is 11-6 vs. lefties while ATL is just 9-10 on the season. the Braves weakness this year has been facing the left handers as they average just 3.7 rpg off of them which is down 2.3 runs from their overall home average.

Neither one of these guys is likely to go deep, so you know we'll see a lot of the pens tonight. Each of these teams has a good pen, or at least their numbers to date reflect as much, and each is rested.

Notes:
DIAMONDBACKS

• Diamondbacks are the second highest scoring team in the league at 5.1 runs per game.
• Diamondbacks are second worst in K's per game with 7.7.
• Diamondbacks have the second stingiest defence in the league at 4.1 runs per game.
• Diamondbacks are second best in the league in giving up hits, allowing 7.9 per game.
• Diamondbacks give up the fewest free passes in the league allowing 2.9 per game.
• Diamondbacks are third in the league in striking out opponents with 7.4 per game.

BRAVES

• Braves are the third highest scoring team in the league at 4.9 runs per game.
• Braves have the second best hits stat in the league at 9.9 per game.
• Braves strike out less than any team in the league with 5.3 per game.
• Braves are the toughest team to score on in the league, allowing just 3.6 runs per game.
• Braves have the best hits allowed in the league, allowing 7.8 per game.

Ump:
Crew has not been announced

Weather:
Tonight the weather will be warm with the chance of some isolated t-storms; wind will not be a factor.


Tonight we have two have the highest scoring teams in the league which also happen to be the two best defensive teams in the league. The atl bats have been red hot while the Az bats have been really struggling over the last week. that being said, AZ has seen and clobbered reyes in the past and he may be the one to get their bats heated up again. Davis has had some success against atl and if he can keep his team close, i believe AZ has the advantage in the pen.

I will take AZ +128
I will also take this one to go over 9.5 +102